Tajikistan has significant potential for solar energy due to its high solar irradiation levels and land availability. According to a study by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), Tajikistan has the potential to generate up to 220,000 GWh () of electricity from solar power, which is more than ten times its current electricity consumption. This potential can be harnessed through utility-scale solar power projects, which can provide clean and affordable electricity to households and businesses across the country. Additionally, solar power can help to reduce Tajikistan’s dependence on imported fossil fuels and improve its energy security.
Along with significant opportunities, Tajikistan is confronted with a number of obstacles that limit the growth of renewable energy, particularly utility-scale solar PV. These obstacles include the country’s mountainous topography, the state of its transmission infrastructure, problems with grid connections, the level of tariffs and affordability issues, financial sustainability issues, etc. When creating options to achieve the goal of scaling up utility-scale solar PV sources, particularly through private sector investment, a number of additional factors must be taken into account, including the existing generation mix, which is predominately hydropower, other characteristics of the electricity sector, the legal/regulatory framework and institutional set-up, and local development priorities that prioritize skill development and institutional capacity building
The Government of Tajikistan (GoT) has outlined its National Development Strategy until 2030 (NDS-2030), with the first of its four national strategic goals being to ensure energy security and the efficient use of electricity. This target is to be achieved through the “10/10/10/10 concept” of increasing installed capacity to 10 GWT, increasing annual export of electricity to neighboring countries to 10 billion kWh, ensuring 10% diversification in electric power system capacity, and reducing electricity losses in the country to 10%. To meet these objectives, GoT has identified renewable energy sources (RE) as a key priority, alongside the rehabilitation of existing hydropower plants and investment in energy efficiency. Solar PV appears to be part of the least-cost options. According to the MEWR by 2030, the installed capacity of generating stations using solar and wind energy should be 700MW; today, 450MW of this is being developed by a feasibility study with the participation of international consulting companies with the financial support of international financial institutions.
Within 10 years (2010-2020) domestic demand has risen by 10% and recent analysis suggests that more than 4000 MW of new generation capacity would be required by 2040 to meet the projected domestic electricity demand and deliver under the commitments related to existing electricity export contracts.